The October edition of the Cordell Construction Monthly Report provides a clearer picture of the national construction environment, and while the data shows genuine improvement across several indicators, the underlying pattern is one of inconsistency rather than stable recovery. Nationally, 1,281 new projects were identified in September, which represents a 10.2 percent increase on the previous month and contributes to a 12.1 percent rise across the past three months. However, despite these short-term gains, the volume of new projects recorded over the past year remains 6.7 percent lower than the 12 months to September 2024.
The estimated value of new projects also lifted, reaching 6.6 billion dollars, an increase of 13.1 percent month on month. On the surface this appears encouraging, but when examined alongside the uneven flow of work entering and progressing through the pipeline, the picture becomes more complex. The data highlights a market that moves in surges rather than in a sustained trend, which creates a difficult environment for owners who need reliable information to support planning decisions.
Although September produced an uplift in project numbers and value, the year-on-year decline indicates that the overall pipeline is still weaker than it was a year earlier. With median project values varying significantly across categories, from approximately 800 thousand dollars for civil engineering projects to over 1.5 million dollars for apartments and units, even small changes in project mix can materially shift revenue forecasts. In this context, many construction businesses are finding that forward projections lack the stability required for confident planning and resource allocation.
The report also shows that 171 projects moved into construction in September, an increase of 12.5 percent compared to August. Yet over the past 12 months, the number of projects transitioning into active construction is 12.7 percent lower. This widening gap between new project identification and projects that actually commence construction creates pressure on cash flow, particularly for businesses that rely on consistent conversion to keep claim cycles and collections steady.
The state-by-state breakdown shows that each market is moving at a different pace, with wide variation in the composition of project value. For example, NSW is heavily skewed toward apartments and units, which make up 52.4 percent of total project value, while WA is led by civil engineering at 53.0 percent, and VIC carries a significant weighting toward community projects at 54.0 percent. This diversity means that national figures can be misleading and that each construction business needs a more granular, category-based view of its operating environment.
Competition remains strong across most regions, particularly where project numbers have declined over the longer term. This competitive pressure makes it harder to protect margin during tendering, and combined with commercial uncertainty, increases the likelihood of margin fade during delivery. Where internal commercial processes are inconsistent or where job costing structures lack discipline, businesses are finding that even well-priced work can erode more quickly than anticipated.
With indicators moving in different directions across short, medium and long-term periods, construction businesses are having to make strategic decisions in an environment where certainty is limited. Choices about when to hire, which projects to pursue, what investment to prioritise, and when to hold or release cash all require a level of financial clarity that many businesses still struggle to access. Without reliable reporting, clear forecasting, or robust governance, decision-making becomes reactive and often influenced by short-term signals that may not reflect underlying trends.
Across the industry, the businesses that are demonstrating resilience in the face of volatility are not necessarily the ones with the most work in the pipeline, but rather the ones that have built internal structures that allow them to remain stable even when external conditions shift. These businesses tend to have:
The October Cordell report shows that the construction sector is still operating within a pattern of short term improvement and long term volatility. While the September uplift in new projects and project value is encouraging, it does not yet signal a structural recovery. For construction businesses, the priority should be building internal financial and commercial capability that can absorb these fluctuations and support confident, consistent decision making.
If you are finding it difficult to forecast accurately, if cash flow has become unpredictable, or if you feel you lack the financial clarity needed to make confident decisions, our advisors can help. Get in touch with one of our team for a complimentary call to understand what is driving the pressure and what steps can bring your business back into control.
